Survey Results of the June 9, 1997 Silicon Valley Roundtable Workshop with
six panelists: Doug Henton, President of Collaborative Economics, Richard
Carlson, Chairman of Spectrum Economics, Lu Cordova, Director of @Home
Network, Steve Levy, Chief Economist of Center for Continuing Study of
California Economy, Claire Starry, President of TDS Economics, and Dave
Raphael, President of Marcar Management Institute of America, Inc.

The follow trends are ranked in order of agreement by participants in the
Workshop. Participants voted their agreement (100% full agreement) or
disagreement (0% = no agreement) on each trend after one and half hours of
presentations and discussion in the workshop. Trends with high agreement
are:

1. Constraints - highway congestion, high cost of living, pollution and
educational constraints will slow future Silicon Valley growth

2. Venture Capital - Venture Capital will continue to be a major force in
the future growth of Silicon Valley. If it slows, Silicon Valley suffers.

3. Alliance Valley - A  success factor of Silicon Valley includes its
unique combination of collaborating through alliances and its
individualistic culture.

4. Merit and Startups - Another success factor of Silicon Valley is the
culture of promoting people based on merit rather than age, and the
tolerance of failure (it is okay to fail, get up and start up again).

5. Information Leadership - Silicon Valley is a leader in the information
economy that is driving trends rather than merely reacting to external
trends.

6. New clusters - Silicon Valley "clusters" will change dramatically in the
future giving rise to totally new businesses and products.

7. Invincibility - Almost two thirds of the participants believe that
Silicon Valley is invincible. It will continue to grow and flourish in
spite such constraints as

(a)  Research and development spending priorities,

(b) Potential volatility of stock options and their impact on recruiting
and keeping top level employees and managers, and the

(c) Increasing conflict between the growth of the Internet and local
telecommunications regulations, and

(d) Rival regions that are becoming more competitive to Silicon Valley in
the future as key jobs and technologies disperse.


Other factors that will influence Silicon Valley in the future include:

(a) Shift to increasing returns to scale - the new growth theory in which
explains why people want more as they get more (i.e., addiction to
information)

(b) Discovery of new opportunities - a proclivity to seek risks and place
less emphasis on problem solving as pursued in previous periods.

(c) Fast track network - in which each person and each group makes their
own contribution in a network that is constantly admitting new members and
spinning off others. It creates a high degree of mobility of people,
capital, ideas and chaos. Chaos is a success factor in Silicon Valley.

(d) Beyond the Internet - The high growth of the Internet is a powerful
factor for Silicon Valley today, but many are already looking beyond it to
the next force of tomorrow.

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Participants ranked the workshop: 43% said "great", 50% said "good", 7%
said "average" and 100% said they planned to attend another SVRT meeting.
Trends were described by panelists at the SVRT Workshop. Survey was edited
and compiled by Dave Raphael, President of SVRT June 9, 1997
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