Election Outlook 1996 by Dr. Kenneth H. Jacobson on January 9, 1995 Lockheed Martin Corporation (speaker's comments are his own) Silicon Valley Roundtable meeting The emergence of what appears to be a new Republican majority has been accompanied by five trends in American politics. * A shift of population and political power from the frost belt to the sun belt of the South and West * A decline of population and votes of America's big cities, once bastions of Democratic electoral strength. * A transition to post-industrial politics resulting from a dispersion in the economic and technical spheres and as growing distrust in the effectiveness of large bureaucracies, including government. * The drift of Catholics and southern white Protestants from the Democratic fold. * The so-called gender gap suggesting that men are increasingly pro-Republican in their voting patterns, while women increasingly favor Democrats. There are other trends in U.S. politics, but these account for significant change. Four appear to favor the GOP (Republicans), while the last cuts both ways. We all know that presidents are elected by the Electoral College and not the popular vote. We know it, but during every national campaign we are mesmerized by discussions of opinion polls and projections of the popular vote. Political scientists and campaign professionals don't make that mistake. That is why they and London bookmakers are often better at making electoral forecasts than the man in the street or talking heads on television. The Republican Electoral College lock is in the shape of a thick blue L on the U.S. maps of three recent elections -- 1980, 1984, and 1988. It runs from the Canadian border to the Rio Grande and runs eastward to the Atlantic ports of the old confederacy. Control of the West and South reduces electoral campaigns to contests for the states in the northeastern quadrant of the country. It forces the Democrats to sweep in such large states as New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan. The Republican lock on the electoral college was solid from 1972 to 1992, except for Jimmy Carter's post Watergate victory in 1976. It was broken, however, by Ross Perot's third party challenge in 1992, when Perot managed to siphon off 18.9 percent of the popular vote. The 1994 election, however, was a smashing victory for the Republicans who gained 52 House seats, 9 Senate seats, 14 governorships, and 18 state legislatures. It was even more remarkable for the fact that no sitting Republican was defeated in either the House or the Senate. But while the 1994 election was clearly a rejection of Clinton, the Democrats, and liberalism, it was not a referendum on Medicare or a mandate to dismantle middle class entitlements. The White House has reasons for optimism in January 1996. The President's approval rating is up. He has enjoyed limited foreign policy successes in the Middle East, Northern Ireland, and Bosnia. Moreover, his rivals have suffered reversals. Senator Dole's party support was shown to be wide but shallow by the Colin Powell boomlet. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is increasingly perceived as the heavy in the ongoing budget fight. At the same time, President Clinton is still burdened by the character issue. Even as he has climbed in the polls, he is perceived by many voters as a philanderer, a draft dodger, and a man without a fixed conviction. He also badly needs to repair ties to the congressional Democrats, and faces widespread alienation in his native South. Most damaging of all, however, are the inevitable foreign policy minefields of Bosnia, the Russian presidential election scheduled in June, a more assertive China, and instability in North Korea. The 1996 Election - Net Assessment * There will be no significant third party challenge * The GOP will control the House and Senate, but will not win a blow-out similar to 1994. * The Democrats will suffer further losses in the South and border states. * Assuming that Bob Dole wins the Republican nomination for president, he should be, in the parlance of sports writers, a 3-2 favorite to win the election. * On the other hand, Bill Clinton should be a 3-2 favorite against other Republican nominees.